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Paul Taillon Clinches Consistency Prize for the Fall, 2009, Arlington Park OTB Tour Handicapping Contest Series



Mark Foss, Robert Lowe, and Craig Smith Round out Top Five Entries in Net Standings

 

On Saturday, November 28, Paul Taillon set a new record, one-day, total for the OTB Tour handicapping contest series by running his $50 stake into $1,381.91.  The bulk of that total was accounted for by an investment of $6.10 in a 10-cent superfecta part wheel.  If you haven’t already done so, you can read Taillon’s story on my blog by clicking here. 

 

Since that contest, held at Arlington’s South Beloit OTB parlor, did not offer a Las Vegas/World Series trip to the top finisher, Taillon also catapulted to the lead in the net cumulative standings.  That was significant because the final winner in the net cumulative standings wins the Consistency Prize, the coveted Vegas/World Series trip, after all!

 

Contest participants played each week, at a different Arlington OTB parlor, attempting to run their $50 starting bankroll as high as they could.  First prize at eight of the Tour stops was a trip to Las Vegas to play in the 2010 Coast Casinos World Series handicapping tournament to be held February 18-20.  The top finisher in those weekly contests won a paid entry, worth $1000, into the World Series, a $500 travel voucher, $200 cash, plus Arlington pays for the winner’s lodging for the four days of the World Series.

 

But Arlington awarded a ninth trip in the current fall OTB Tour series.  An additional trip is awarded to the player who accumulates the highest total of money won over the course of the fall series without winning a weekly prize.  Thus, the prize rewards steady participation and performance, and is therefore named the consistency prize.  Taillon not only topped the net cumulative standings, he topped the cumulative standings, period, or should I say with an exclamation mark!

 

But it was a nervous next three weeks for Taillon because plenty of good handicappers, solid tournament players, were naturally aiming for him, so to speak.  There were remaining contests at Arlington’s Rockford, McHenry, and Arlington Trackside OTB’s where any one, or more, competitors could have a day like Taillon’s South Beloit day and move ahead of him.

“I never took anything for granted,” admitted Taillon.  “I’ve been playing in these Arlington contests since they started, and I’ve read your (this correspondent’s) weekly blog stories about each contest, and I knew there were a lot of people who are capable of making a big score at any time and passing me in the standings.”

 

But Taillon not only held on to win, he widened his lead along the way.

 

“I am obviously so pleased, really elated, to have finished on top,” gushed Taillon when told that he was the winner of the consistency prize. 

 

“But I’m elated and bummed out at the same time,” Taillon quickly added.  “I grew to look forward to every Saturday and the next road trip to a different parlor for another contest with my expanding circle of friends.  Arlington’s Tour concept really grows on a person.  But now there isn’t another contest until next spring’s Tour.

 

“I was kind of to myself in the beginning,” continued Taillon.  “But I opened up as more contestants opened up to me.  I was extremely impressed at how many people, my competition remember, congratulated me after my South Beloit win, and also wished me luck thereafter.  It’s quite uplifting to have your competition want to see you do well, since it is quite unexpected and most unusual, I would have thought.  But there is really a growing camaraderie among the group of contest players in spite of the fact we are competing against each other.”

 

(NOTE:  This correspondent has always preached, if the people you sit with at the races aren’t happy for you when you win, get away from them!)

 

Taillon’s interest in racing and handicapping has been growing.  “I’ve had an interest for some time, but it was maybe 10 years ago that I started to take more interest, attend the races more often, and start to develop my handicapping skills,” he explained.

 

“About three years ago I stepped up my activity even more, including trying to become an even better handicapper,” Taillon continued.  “I’m still kind of a plodder when it comes to betting, in spite of the impression given by my hit on the 10-cent superfecta to win at South Beloit.

“But I will attest that playing in these handicapping contests has served to improve my overall handicapping and betting, not just my contest play” stated Taillon, echoing a theme we have heard from a growing number of contest players.  “The key to success is to do what one should always be doing, such things as handicapping thoroughly ahead of time, knowing the races you are interested in and those you aren’t, determining the appropriate wagering strategy for a race, and managing your money accordingly.

 

“And by improving my handicapping and betting, I’m now going to Las Vegas to play in a big tournament with big prize money, the Coast Casinos World Series (estimated first prize:  $300,000),” Taillon continued.  “I’ll be going with other successful handicappers I’ve come to know through the Tour handicapping contests, people like Dave Sellner, Dan Pavlik, Mike Rusovick, Tom Hausheer, and more.

 

“I want to add that there are many other Tour players who did a heck of a job at points in the Tour, and are just as deserving of winning their way to Las Vegas as I am,” admitted Taillon graciously.  “I won’t mention names, but I fully expect to see a bunch of those people go on next spring’s Tour and win their way to Las Vegas in 2011, and deservedly so.”

Taillon is referring to Arlington’s spring, 2010, OTB Parlor Tour featuring handicapping seminars and contests.  There will be a Saturday series much like the spring, 2010, series with details to be announced after the first of the year.

 

Below are the final standings for the fall, 2009, OTB Parlor Tour handicapping contest series.  Only accounts with a positive balance are shown.  The eight weekly winners of a trip to Las Vegas to play in the World Series are highlightedFor finishing first in the final standings without having won a weekly contest, Taillon is awarded the consistency prize.

 

Rank

 

Final Balance

Name

1

$1,968.51

Taillon, Paul

2

$1,047.00

Pommier, Jim

3

$934.97

Foss, Mark

4

$910.80

Lowe, Robert

5

$757.20

Lowe, Robert

6

$704.63

Pavlik, Dan

7

$637.45

Smith, Craig

8

$618.87

Hausheer, Tom

9

$555.10

Lieske, Ken

10

$507.90

Skamser, Laura

11

$503.30

Zipp, Richard

12

$454.80

Siano, Mike

13

$449.21

Taillon, Paul

14

$427.50

Rusovick, Mike

15

$411.40

Maevski, Walter

16

$409.00

Vitek, William

17

$388.80

Hoffman, Paul

18

$379.90

Anderson, Dave

19

$374.80

Duncan, Larry

20

$365.30

Wright, Robert

21

$337.30

Woelffer, Art

22

$309.80

Marsh, William

23

$308.35

Hausheer, Tom

24

$296.40

Duncan, Larry

25

$272.90

Hoffman, Paul

26

$262.25

Coliani, Frank

27

$239.50

Lieske, Ken

28

$222.40

Bolek, Tom

29

$204.90

Tran, John

30

$200.02

Bolek, Tom

31

$198.80

Alvarez, Claudio

32

$191.20

Reed, Tom

33

$190.50

Koper, Stan

34

$176.68

Pecorelli, Mike

35

$140.70

Woelffer, Art

36

$138.10

Marsh, William

37

$134.20

Jones, Mike

38

$126.30

Garcia, Frank

39

$126.20

Root, Joseph

40

$120.20

Coffey, James

41

$116.40

Albanese, Bob

42

$112.00

Smith, Craig

43

$108.20

Zipp, Richard

44

$108.00

Cahill, Tammy

45

$104.50

Zimpel, John

46

$100.29

Vitek, William

47

$86.60

Szat, Ron

48

$82.60

Frazin, Norman

49

$80.60

Hausheer, Patricia

50

$77.70

Ryan, Patrick

51

$73.40

Albanese Jr., Rbt.

52

$73.40

Zipp, Tom

53

$72.90

Cooper, Tom

54

$68.90

Esposito, Tony

55

$67.50

Warner, James

56

$67.00

Pawlak, Ann

57

$64.60

Georgian, Paul

58

$61.20

Materko, John

59

$55.60

Thyfault, John

60

$52.00

Maduri, Larry

61

$51.10

Benes, Ruby

62

$50.00

Dellinger, Steve

63

$50.00

Pawlak, Joe

64

$47.12

Koper, Stan

65

$47.10

Wines, Mike

66

$47.00

Dwyer, Bob

67

$46.90

Frank, John

68

$46.30

Rosenberg, Chas.

69

$43.90

Jackson, Herbert

70

$39.50

Faraci, Linda

71

$37.90

Dinges, Jim

72

$37.40

Jezior, Ed

73

$33.50

Speck, Fred

74

$33.00

Laski, Jay

75

$31.70

Byers, Puala

76

$29.40

Reed, Tom

77

$27.70

Wachala, Ray

78

$27.20

Rusovick Jr., Mike

79

$22.80

Siano, Mike

80

$22.20

Barnes, Jeff

81

$13.70

Newsome, Tammy

82

$12.50

Smith, George

83

$11.10

Brown, Ed

84

$11.10

Dwyer, Bob

85

$10.00

Rusovick Jr., Mike

86

$4.90

Sellner, Dave

87

$4.70

D'Amato, Anthony

88

$3.60

O'Connor, Mike

89

$2.00

Ragsdale, Steve

90

$1.60

Pommier, Jim

91

$1.60

Schulz, Dieter

92

$1.00

Maevski, Walter

93

$1.00

Wyatt, Henry D.

94

$0.65

Taylor, Stephen

95

$0.60

Yaffee, Paul

96

$0.50

Dzlobas, Frank

97

$0.50

Yelke, Jeff

98

$0.32

Russo, Joe

99

$0.25

Taylor, Stephen

100

$0.20

Kassel, Tom

101

$0.10

Georgian, Paul

102

$0.10

Speck, Fred

103

$0.07

Bartel, John

104

$0.05

Rusovick, Mike

105

$0.02

Fragakis, Jim

 

You will be glad to know that Arlington will be offering a spring OTB Parlor Tour starting soon.  Plans are being finalized but at this point we can state that the schedule and the features will be very similar to the 2009 Tours.  Block out the Saturdays in the spring on your calendar and watch your inbox for more information.

 

You don’t have to participate in our live-money handicapping contests if you come to a Tour stop, you can just partake of the other features such as the pre-race handicapping seminar.  But you should play in the contests.  They are free to enter and you are ahead almost immediately since you earn 10 Twin Spires points for every contest dollar wagered.  You win more if you finish in the top five.  And, you win a lot more if you finish first!

 

Don’t be deterred by the fact you may be inexperienced playing in handicapping contests.  Last year no less than six fans finished first in a weekly contest on their first attempt!  A number of other first-starters finished in the top five on their first contest try.  I urge you to go to my blog at arlingtonpark.com (http://www.arlingtonpark.com/blog/scottm).  You will be inspired.

 

Good handicapping!  See you when the spring Tour begins, if not soonerodgkinsHodg!!  Your turn to win may be coming, but you can’t win it unless you get in it!!!

 

Scott

 

M. Scott McMannis

Arlington Handicapper, The Chicago Sun-Times

Midwest Correspondent, The HorsePlayer Magazine

Owner/Publisher, Arlington and Hawthorne Trainer Patterns,

   and The McMannis Speed & Trip Service Weekly Newsletter

Seminar and Contest Host, Arlington Park

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Gulfstream, Laurel, and

Gulfstream, Laurel, and Golden Gate are up for Thursday-Golden Gate has 6 or less horses in 6 of their 8 races so that card didn't take long to do!

nope, Wed. morning, but I've

nope, Wed. morning, but I've already started handicapping. In the interest of marital harmony I've got to limit it to 4 nights.

eaoa89: I hope you are going

eaoa89:

I hope you are going early. You want to register at the tournament as soon as possible on Wednesday morning so you can go into the ballroom and pick where you want to sit.

Good handicapping to you and all of Team Arlington.

Scott

Flight leaves at 8:25 so in

Flight leaves at 8:25 so in at 10:25 vegas time. (But as many times as you've seen me at the track or your off-tracks, how much do i actually sit!) I'll just try to find a spot at the end so i don't keep interupting people when i get up and down. Been up since 4am this morning handicapping and still a ton to do, but got Thursday done and finding some interesting horses on Friday (believe it or not i'm really interested in a few at laurel of all places)

eaoa89: Post from Vegas to

eaoa89:

Post from Vegas to this blog and update us.

Good handicapping!

Scott

eoea89: This post is from

eoea89:

This post is from Saturday. Are you in Vegas yet?

I know many guys are leaving for Vegas on Monday, some on Tuesday.

Scott

Well, this afternoon (or

Well, this afternoon (or more likely for me tomorrow AM) it will be the start of my "Vegas Experience". Laurel's PPs for Thursday should be up this afternoon (There are only 6 tracks Thursday with FG and HAW dark)

Under the "meaningless stats" category there are 209 races-54 Thursday, 74 Friday, and 81 Saturday. (With the increase of races from 11 to 15 each day in the contest I may go as low as 6/1 on Thursday since we'll have to play 28% of the races that day.)

What's interesting to me as well is that they actually give horses starting for a tag a 3 pound allowance in a couple of optional claimers, so those may be interesting horses to look at. (If they're in for a tag it usually means they've passed the allowance, and while I don't consider weight a whole lot, that could be giving an advantage to horses who may be the best anyway. Now can I get a price in either of those races?)

eaoa89: Your post is from

eaoa89:

Your post is from last Thursday and today is Sunday. Are you in Vegas now?

Some would reason that if a horse hasn't used up his allowance condition, yet is entered for a tag, the trainer may be wanting the weight off and therefore the move is a positive sign of trainer intent.

The skeptic would say the trainer wants everyone to think the horse is well-intended (and sound) so someone will claim him.

It's like a poker game, isn't it?

Scott

Scott- I'm gonna spring for

Scott-
I'm gonna spring for the in-room internet since I really like to use formulator along with bris numbers. You mentioned hard work and that's a "catch 22". When you have to play horses at least 8 or 9/1 you're going to be able to find a compelling reason to play against them, and to be honest a lot of tickets I haven't cashed have been as a result of overthinking. Right now I'm leaning towards keeping it simple-Finding longshots that could fit, making sure I'm getting a fair price, and then "pulling the trigger". And, doggone it, I've done all right all year and while a lot of money is on the line, this is also a vacation so I'm going to have fun!

EI-EI-O: You are right -

EI-EI-O:

You are right - there is a lot of money on the line. And, you should have fun. But you can do both. One thing I've learned is that the more you win, the more fun it is!

I always advise you players in the big tournaments to compartmentalize your time: Commit to clock-around (except for sleeping and eating) handicapping and contest wagering during the days of the tourney, but also go to Las Vegas early, or stay late, to have some vacation play. Be sure to ask the hotel for the tourney-player's rate for extra days.

Your approach is good, in principle: find longshots that fit, are at longer odds than maybe they should be, and pull the trigger. Tournaments aren't won by people taking obvious, short-priced horses. In some races (mandatory ones) you may have no choice but to take a favorite if you think he almost can't lose. But go for the overlooked horse where you can find them.

I want to see our (Team Arlington) people do well in the Coast Casinos tournament, and have a good time, too.

By the way, you and all Arlington handicapping contest players will want to know that we have finalized the contest schedule for my upcoming spring, 2010, OTB Tour. There will be NINE Tour stops and NINE trips to the 2011 Coast Casinos World Series at stake! I'm sure I'll see you at most of them.

Again, GOOD HANDICAPPING to all Team Arlington members in Las Vegas.

Captain Scott

This tourney doesn't have

This tourney doesn't have mandatory races, so that won't be a problem. However, I'm wondering what the switch from 11 to 15 races a day does to "minimum odds" strategy. For example on Thursday there are a total of only 54 races because Hawthorne and Fairgrounds are dark. Do you drop down to 5 or 6/1 from 8 or 9? The good news (for me) is that I can have Thursday done and all of Friday except for Oaklawn and Hawthorne. (I'll know what horses I will potentialy use and have them listed by starting time when I walk into the tournament each day) I've figured out that while I'm in Vegas I'll have 78 races to look at. When I "quick cap" maiden claimers and all maiden dirt races (basically look to see who the prime bris horse tops are and see if there is a price) and throw out dirt maiden races with 2 or more 1sters that should bring the number down a bit. (I know myself well enough to know that there's no way I'll sit for hours on end handicapping while I'm in Vegas, nor would I be effective after a few hours) Should be interesting and if nothing else educational as I'm planning on qualifying at one of your stops this year!

eaoa89: You seem to have a

eaoa89:

You seem to have a plan that you have thought out and one with which you are comfortable. So, as I like to say, plan your work then work your plan. You are ready to do the latter.

What do you mean, qualifying at one of my Tour stops this year??? Why not qualify twice???

Scott

Yes it does help. I have

Yes it does help. I have been re-reading a few books myself. My betting has been pretty simple so I am trying to learn how to use exotic wagering strategies not just for contests but for everyday wagering.

chermo: That will help you

chermo:

That will help you in contest play.

Scott

In case you missed it the

In case you missed it the "basic" rules are now posted at www.orleanscasino.com.
Paul

Paul: Thank you for the

Paul:

Thank you for the update.

Good handicapping at the World Series!

Scott

The web site also now lists

The web site also now lists the tracks for the contest: Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Laurel, Hawthorne, Santa Anita, Fairgrounds, Golden Gate, Oaklawn

TGH4559

TGH: Thank you for the info.

TGH:

Thank you for the info.

This is the first time a Chicago track will be racing when either the DRF/NTRA or the Coast Casinos World Series will be running.

I had asked Coast Casinos to use Hawthorne. Hopefully all of you who are going to the WS will be able to make some hay on Hawthorne races, especially if you know who typically has their horses ready. Don't forget to take your Hawthorne Spring Trainer Patterns book with you!

Good handicapping to you in Las Vegas!

Scott

Scott, Good point. I will

Scott,

Good point. I will have to meet up with you sometime during Haw opening weekend to get your Trainer Patterns book. Like you say, the book shows which trainers are typically ready early in the meet; also and just as important, you can see which trainers to avoid wagering on because of their low percentages early in the meet.

TGH4559

TGH: I urge you to get my

TGH:

I urge you to get my Hawthorne Spring Trainer patterns book for 2010 ASAP and highlight all the trainers with big win percentages off layoffs. You especially want to look for the guys/gals that have those good stats and "fly under the radar" by winning yet aren't big stables that are known by fans. That's where the better payouts are, and that's what you want in handicapping contest play.

Scott

For those of you who

For those of you who qualified for Vegas, just called the "contest line". (You may want to do that to get your room if you haven't done it) and also asked her to send me the rules (evidently they aren't sending them out automatically) Also, there's no wifi in the ball room where the tournament is going to be held and we get a room for 4 nights (she'll ask which 4 nights) Again, let's get a lot of us "in the money" and GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!

EI-EI-O: Thanks for the

EI-EI-O:

Thanks for the helpful info.

Can you share the "Contest Line" phone number with us?

Everybody: when confirming your room, you should ask for the "Newer Tower" which is a recent addition to the Orleans and has nicer accommodations.

No WiFi in the contest rooms? There is a Business Center with WiFi. You can get Internet service in your room by paying for it. Decide ifn the price is worth it.

Thank you, also, for your GOOD LUCK to all contestants representing Arlington Park. I like your spirit, always have. We have two dozen of you going out there, and I'm cheering for a lot of you to finish high in the standings.

Scott

PEHWINS: Great news spoke

PEHWINS: Great news spoke with Debbie at contest line and she confirmed Hawthorne as a designated track. Best of luck to all the contestants representing Chicago.
Paul

Paul: Again, thanks for the

Paul:

Again, thanks for the info.

And, thanks for the well wishes to your fellow contestants representing Arlington.

Scott

wow alot of man love in here

wow alot of man love in here but anyway........pauly tuck took nothing for granted but bought his ticket to lv 3 weeks before contest ended.... he thought he was a standout amoung the contestants left ....which he was
288 out of midway on the airfares for those still shopping and dont wish to go to wisconsin to save 50 bucks.....southwest gotta get away the early line is out odds to make top 80 in the world series dave sellner 10-1
dan p 20-1
big mike 35-1
pauly tuck 1000-1
joe russo 10000-1
handy koper 1,000,000-1

Big Mikey: Are the guy who

Big Mikey:

Are the guy who played the little kid, about 30 years ago, in that cereal ad where Mikey's brother said, "Let Mikey try it - he'll eat anything." ?

Paul said he bought his ticket with three weeks to go in the contest series since he decided he would go, even if he didn't win the consistency price. Paul, come on here and confirm that.

Whoa! You're being tough on Koper, aren't you? He always moans about being such a bad handicapper, but he always gets a win, every year, and goes to Vegas. Stan: come on here and defend yourself.

And, remember that Dave Sellner finished 10th in this tournament last year. I won't be surprised if he wins it!

And, I won't be surprised if you win it, Mike. Your blast-away style could come through at just the right time.

For those who've already

For those who've already played in the tourney-my biggest concern is the ability to handicap that many races without "drifting". Have you been able to do it or do you go to specific tracks or types of races? I have no problem putting the time in but my concern is that the concentration won't be there after a few hours of staring at PP's.

EI-EI-O: You are already on

EI-EI-O:

You are already on the right track. With 80-100 races a day to choose from, how does one handicap all of them? The answer is, you don't.

Like you said, go to specific tracks and types of races. Do you prefer dirt, synthetic, or turf? Concentrate on your preference.

How about sprints versus routes? Winners versus maidens? Do you like races full of first-starters because you are good at finding good prices in those races?

Remember, these tourneys are won with prices, not with favorites!

Just by concentrating on your strong areas as you hinted at in your question, you should have 80-100 races down to a much more manageable number.

Good handicapping!

Scott

EI-EI-O: Another thing.

EI-EI-O:

Another thing. Make a list of the races you are interested in. Then, be sure to write down the POST TIME of each race, all converted to Las Vegas time, of course. It's up to you to stay on top of what's happening all around the country. There will be no announcements of "Two minutes to race six at Hawthorne" so a personal schedule is essential.

Also, check weather reports around the country. If you don't like off tracks and you know rain is expected in New York, don't handicap that track (other than required).

Anyone else have suggestions?

Scott

EI-EI-O: Following up on my

EI-EI-O:

Following up on my last post.

Did all of you notice that last Saturday, on the second day of the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Challenge, there were three tracks that cancelled racing for Saturday? They were Oaklawn, Laurel, and Aqueduct. Due to bad weather.

I repeat, check the weather for each contest day when you are in Las Vegas for the Coast Casinos World Series. Be prepared to adjust your handicapping if a track cancels.

Scott

Scott- That can acutally

Scott-
That can acutally work both ways-There are horses who'se chances move way up on an off track and the "price can be right". Good thing to remember and thanks-As "Crunch Tim" approaches the weather/track condition is something I hadn't even thought about as far as a source of long shots.

EI-EI-O: You are spot on.

EI-EI-O:

You are spot on. As I said, adjust your approach and handicap for conditions. You just may find a price horse or two, as you said.

Again, be alert to weather, not only for track-condition changes but also for cancellations. I suggest that contestants arrive early to confirm track conditions as well as program changes, etc. One doesn't want to arrive at the last minute only to find out there are have been changes in the mandatories, price plays have been scratched, even that the speed duel you anticipated in a race has been wiped out by one of the speed horses scratching.

There is a lot to do. One really has to be dedicated and organized over the days of the contest. But let's hope you are partying afterward!

Scott

Paul I expect you and the

Paul
I expect you and the rest of the guys to do quite well in the big contest.

I'm happy that you won the trip to Vegas.

If anyone reading these blogs has not been in the contests, they should try them. They are a lot of fun and you can never tell what bet will be sending you to Vegas. Paul may have won with a smidge under two grand but someone won the trip winning just 73 dollars.

My one suggestion would be to have a separate contest fund from your usual racing stash. That way if you don't hit anything that contest day you are not worried about betting the rest of the week.

chermo: All good. It all

chermo:

All good.

It all boils down to this: If you can bet $50 on a Saturday, you owe it to yourself to play in these OTB handicapping contests. You have nothing to lose since the contests are free to enter, and you could win a trip to Las Vegas! But you can't win it unless you get in it!

Scott

I have a brochure on the

I have a brochure on the Contest. THE RULES ARE AS FOLLOWS;
-Each player will make 15 individual $20 Win and $20 Place wagers per day (Mythical Wagers) at selected race tracks.
-Full track odds will be paid on the first $2 for both WIN & PLACE. The remaining $18 will be capped at $40 to Win and $20 to Place.
-In the past AQU, LRL, GUL, FG, OAK, HAW, SA, GG race tracks have been used.

RDZ: Thank you. Note that

RDZ:

Thank you.

Note that a Chicago track is available for the first time.

Scott

Thanks RDZ, I'm really

Thanks RDZ, I'm really looking forward to playing in the tournament and trying to formulate a strategy. (Since I'm gonna be there anyway I guess I should at least try to win!)

Does anyone have the rules

Does anyone have the rules for Vegas yet?
I'm actually starting to do some "experimental handicapping" to get my strategy together. The first thing I did was to tell myself realistically that there's no way I can handicap 80 races a day and "be sharp" doing it. And, with no mandatory races I've decided that what I need to do is find "keys/angles" to find long shots. Here's what I've come up with so far:

1.) First Grass-tomlinson over 300
2.) First Route-Tomlinson over 320
3.) First Poly/Art.- off poly breeding list
4.) Lone speed (BE SURE)
5.) Back Class?
6.) Top Bris Prime Number
7.) Fastest Horse Class Hike
8.) HAWTHORNE: open claimers to state bred allowance

I'm demanding at least 9/1 and so far (just win) I'm 2 for 12 with a 3.67 roi. (I did the math with place and projecting out the numbers it would put me at 4400 counting place bets for the tourney assuming 15 races a day, which would certainly put me in the hunt. The 2 horses were Denham in the 9th on Thursday ($30.60, 18.20)who went from open claimers to state bred allowance and looked to be the early speed. Saturday's winner was Noxie Roxie (38.80, 9.80) who I thought would be the early speed but ended up closing after stumbling badly at the start. Was dropping from 17.5 and first route (my guess off the bris distance numbers was that she'd like it and it worked out) Does anyone else have any "quick things" that they look for to find price horses? I'm going to try to be adding to the list right up until I get on the plane!

EI-EI-O: Coast Casinos told

EI-EI-O:

Coast Casinos told me "the rules will be posted on our web site approximately six weeks before the contest," so that should be any day now.

ANYBODY: Please let us know when you see them.

I find your approach fascinating and well thought out. It is all the more interesting since you have done some record keeping since and have some preliminary results that reinforce your approach.

How about it, you guys with big-tournament experience. Is Ol' MacDonald on to something here?

I should add that I sent an email to the honchos at Coast and pointed out to them that Hawthorne would be running at the time of the World Series and they should include Hawthorne in the tournament. Will they?

Scott

Thank you Tom, and Scott,

Thank you Tom, and Scott, and all the tour players. We'll all get to compete again soon. I can't wait!

Well said Tom, it sure was a fun year. We are all lucky to sail along on this tour and have Scott as our captain. Next year's cruise can't start soon enough.

Wishing everyone a Happy Handicapping Year!

Paul

paultail: Thank you for the

paultail:

Thank you for the kind words.

You will want to know, as well as others will want to know, that our Spring OTB Parlor Tour will begin on the first Saturday in March and continue right up to Arlington's live meet. NINE more trips to Las Vegas will be awarded!

Do well in Las Vegas next month, Paul. Make us proud.

Scott

Congratulations to Paul on

Congratulations to Paul on winning a trip to the World Series; $1968 is a very impressive total.

Today is New Year's Day, so I would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year! 2009 has been a great year. I was fortunate to win a trip to the World Series again. So I would like to thank Scott, Andrew, Jake, and everybody at AP for putting on these great contests. Also thanks to everybody else who I see at the contests and at the track for making it a fun year. I didn't always make money, but I always had a great time! I am looking forward to a great 2010. Also, since it is New Year's Day, I would like to wish a Happy Birthday to all of our four-legged friends, without whom none of this would be possible.

TGH4559

TGH4559: Thank you for the

TGH4559:

Thank you for the well wishes.

If you liked the contests in 2009, you will love them in 2010. Stay tuned.

Scott

Prof Schools out and I think

Prof
Schools out and I think a lot of us are aching for the next semester to start up.

Any suggestions on how we can get ready for the spring?

chermo: I'll tell you what I

chermo:

I'll tell you what I do.

I re-read my favorite handicapping books.

I also study my Hawthorne Spring trainer patterns so I know who will have their horses ready for the beginning of the spring meet.

I also look for trainers who tend to win after one tune-up race, two tune-ups, or more.

That helps carry me through the early stages of the meet.

Then we are at the point in the meet where conventional handicapping using recency and form becomes more meaningful.

Hope this helps.

Scott