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Polytrack and Trainers for Courses - Part II

Arlington Park Communications | 09/22/2008 #

Racing fan wittycapper emailed me with a question pertinent to a discussion of trainers in general and trainers campaigning on Polytrack in particular. The question was, “How much do you use the trainer statistics that appear in the past performances?”

 

The short answer is, it depends.

The trainer data wittycapper was referring to was the line of several categories of trainer stats that appears under the line of workouts at the bottom each horse’s past performances in the Form.

I have been surprised at how few racing fans even know how those statistics are compiled. With only one exception, those stats are accumulated over all of last year and this year to date. Therefore, if a trainer campaigned at five or six different race meets in that time frame, all of his starts, and results, are compiled in the categories you see.

What’s the problem with that? It’s twofold. First, a trainer’s stock is going to fit better at one meet versus another. A simple example is the trainer with an average win per cent at Fairmount is likely to have a lower win per cent at Arlington simply because his stock will be overmatched here.

Second, trainers aim for certain meets. They like certain meets for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is, they know and accept that their stock fits better so they will have better results. Also, they may think, rightly or wrongly, that the racing surface is better at one meet over another. Or, they don’t like the tight turns at one track versus another. Or, they prefer one’s turf course over another. Or, they like the barn area better at one track versus another. Or, their owners live in the area around one certain track, and the trainer especially wants to do better at that meet. Or, all of the above.

The conclusion is, since trainers do better at certain meets, we need our trainer data to be compiled by meet. That is even more crucial in this day and age where, as one early poster here pointed out, Thoroughbred racing is now a three-surface sport.

There is one exception to the lack of meet-specific data in the Form past performances. Over to the right of the line of trainer stats is the record of the trainer with today’s named jockey. There are two such sets of data. The first is the trainer-jockey combination for this meet only, last year plus this year to date. The second (to the right) is the record for all of last year and this year to date, all tracks. The first, meet-specific, trainer-jockey combination stat is the only one I use.

You should know that the Arlington track program also gives a trainer/jockey combination stat that is meet-specific for this meet to date. I do use that statistic, as well.

Also, in the Arlington track program you will find a page titled Facts and Figures at Arlington. It includes the top 20 or so trainers and jockeys with their records broken out into a number of categories. That data passes the meet-specific test, since it is for the current meet to date, so I use the information in my handicapping.

Are you already thinking ahead to next year’s Arlington meet? Why not arm yourself with the aforementioned Facts and Figures at Arlington data for all trainers and all jockeys who campaigned at this meet? Send your request to me at mcmannis@horseplayerdaily.com and I will send you the information when it is ready, shortly following the conclusion of this meet.

Are you going to continue to follow horseracing after the conclusion of this meet? Then check elsewhere on this web site for the extensive Arlington OTB Tours to be conducted in three waves, if you will, starting next weekend. Track announcer John G. Dooley and TV analyst Jessica Pacheco, together, will have a tour. Joe Kristufek, Daily Herald Handicapper and Arlington odds-maker (and more), will also have a tour. Finally, I will have a tour as well, going to all of the Arlington parlors.

See you on tour!

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sharew 14/07 12:28 am

Yes, I have observed that the Polytrack runs faster when we have heavy rain. I should say, I know it does. I calculate a track variant for every race day that tells me just how fast or slow the track ran each day. I only need to look at that variant to confirm that the track speeds up after heavy rain, and I can quantify exactly how much.In answer to your second question, I pay no attention to a horse's record on a wet track when I am handicapping him for a Polytrack race. A horse's wet-track record is compiled, collectively, from all his races on good, sloppy, muddy, heavy, and so-called wet-fast tracks (a misnomer and oxymoron if there ever was one). Furthermore, those track conditions are only found on traditional racing surfaces. Recommendation: stick to Polytrack history when handicapping for a Polytrack race.

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vicky99 09/03 2:30 am

vicky:

Right on. Sounds just like something I would say.

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brian500 04/03 6:17 am

Using the meet specific method of training can be the difference between being a winner and being a loser. One meet at a time is also a good way to look at things. Too often some in other sports concentrate on things before their time. casino online

Mark Rochefort 05/01 3:06 pm

I agree that "meet specific" trainer and trainer-jockey stats are absolutely vital if you want to be successful. Not only do they help the handicapper cash winning tickets, these stats are also crucial to avoiding losers. Many times I have saved money by not placing a wager on a horse that "figured" but had poor trainer stats or poor trainer-jockey stats for the particular situation.

I have been using Scott's meet specific stats at the Arlington meet and the two Hawthorne meets for the last four years and plan to continue using them in the future.

TGH4559 23/09 4:57 pm

TGH4559:

Thanks for the endorsement. You will be interested to know this fact: The first eight handicapping seminars I conducted for Arlington coincided with a handicapping contest that afternoon. Six of those eight contests were won by fans who attended my seminar and used my information, the same information you are using. Therefore, I expect to see your name on top in one (or more) of those contests, so keep playing.

There is another contest this coming Breeders' Cup Friday, October 24, at the Trackside OTB known as the Mud Bug on Weed Street in Chicago. We will be awarding paid trips to Las Vegas to compete in next February's World Series handicapping tournament to the TOP TWO finishers.

For a list of Trackside OTB's that will be offering handicapping contests on Saturdays in November click on the RACING/HANDICAPPING tab above. Complete rules are also available there.

It costs nothing to enter these contests. You keep your winnings, plus you can earn extra if you are one of the top five finishers, including entry into the World Series.

Scott

scottm 21/10 12:51 pm

Have another question. I started out by going to the dog tracks. Class was quite simple. The dogs were maidens until they won. Then they jumped in class till they lost a race. Lose 3 races then the dog went down a class. It was very simple to figure out if the dog was in the right class.

Class drops and rises in horse racing seems overly complicated to me. Is there a simple rule of thumb to understand the different class types there are. For example why should a race for just Illinois breds be harder or softer then a conditioned claiming of non-winners of 1 race in a particular time frame.
Thanks for any help.

chermo 22/09 2:21 pm

chermo:

Unfortunately, there is no simple rule of thumb to understanding class types since so many variations have developed over time. However, here are some guidelines:

Think of there being three basic categories of race conditions: Stake/Handicap, Allowance, and Claiming.

The Stake/Handicap category is where the best horses compete, and is pretty straightforward. The best of the best compete in graded races, and they sort out by Grade I, II, and III, in descending order of perceived quality. For non-graded Stake/Handicap races the purse value of a race is an indication of the quality of the field. That is, a named race with a purse of $100,000 should attract a better field than one with a purse of $50,000.

I should interject one cautionary note about purse values. With racinos offering outsized purse money thanks to slots-infused revenue, we do see large purses at lesser tracks that do not necessarily attract better fields than a named race with a smaller purse at a better track.

The next category of race conditions is for Tier Two horses, the Allowance category. Usually the conditions are pretty straightforward: "Allowance, for non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming..." The progression is logical, the next step being non-winners of two other than, then three, and sometimes four.

More complicated is the "non-winners of $XX,000 three times since (date). I usually consider that a Classified Allowance race and rank it above the 'Non-winners of X races" type of race.

In recent years racing secretaries have instituted a hybrid version such as "Allowance, non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming, or entered for a claim price of $XX,000." I treat those according to the Allowance condition.

The third category of race conditions is for Tier Three horses, the Claiming category. The first guide is the claim price: the higher the price in the conditions, supposedly the better the field.

However, racing secretaries expand the categories with conditions such as, "Claiming $10,000, non-winners of three races lifetime." Anytime a condition is put on a race, it tends to lower the quality of the field. The simple way to gauge these races is to remember that NW of three should be tougher than NW of two, etc. A $4,000 non-winners of a race in six months should be easier than a straight $4,000.

What about maidens, horses who have not won a race? Yes, they could be considered as a fourth tier of competition. However, I consider maiden special weight to be the first level of the Allowance tier (remember, horses can't be claimed from a MSW race). I consider a maiden claiming race to be the bottom rung of the Claiming ranks.

After all is said and done, however, handicapping involves predicting how fast you think each horse in a race will run today, then comparing those predictions, one against the others, to predict the likely outcome of the race.

I hope this helps.

Scott

scottm 21/10 12:32 pm

Scott, are you going to continue the blog with Arlington closed. I am interested in your comments on how to handicap horses going from the poly back to the dirt.

I am glad you are going to have your workshops during the Hawthorne meet. I always learn something new each time I go to the workshops.

ps I could not post to IE, still have to use Foxfire

chermo 22/09 11:32 am

Scott-
Regarding trainer intent with Cooler by the Lake, the intent today is to find out if he has potential to be a decent grass horse. He's got a 368 turf tomlinson and all of his siblings raced overseas. We're trying to find out whether we're the owners of a nice grass horse or a cheap Hawthorne claimer. (It's pretty apparent he doesn't care for Poly, at least going any distance at all-the one sprint was my idea and he did show some late (albeit too late) run in that race, and according to Mike came back feeling "full of himself". So the answer is that no, it's not a prep for Hawthorne, but a chance to finally run on the surface he belongs on, as when Mike bought him he said immediatley that this was a 2 turn grass horse-the FG race was the first off of a six month layoff (and Fairgrounds competition is TOUGH with all the slot money they're handing out) so in our minds this is his first race on grass that we'll be able to learn anything from.

eaoa89 20/09 9:26 am

eaoa89:

Now that he ran that race, do you and your trainer have any conclusions regarding his grass ability, preference, potential, etc.?

Scott

scottm 21/09 9:14 am

Well, Janice wants to run him short-Mike wasn't happy (remember, he'd lost a photo with Holi Geri the race before) The logical thing to do (I haven't talked to Mike-he's busy with Jesse's wedding) is to run him on the dirt at Hawthorne (I'd prefer long, but who knows) since it's a pretty safe bet we won't lose him off his performance line. I'm sure we won't give up the grass, but in my opinion, since he ran well his only race at Hawthorne, now is the time to hopfully break the maiden and make a little bit of money.

eaoa89 23/09 8:39 pm

Cooler is running again Wednesday in the 2nd. I did talk to Mike today and he was thinking about taking blinks off, but I talked him out of it (The horse ran well only start over the track and distance so I persuaded him not to change anything, at least for this race) I see he's 8/1 and I would expect him to run well going turf to dirt, especially if Joel (who I think does a nice job) can get out of the gate smoothly.

eaoa89 26/09 5:00 pm

eaoa89:

Can you give an update on Cooler By The Lake?

Do you get many comments from fans who confuse this horse with one named Coolernearthelake? I believe Paul Darjean campaigned that one.

Scott

scottm 21/10 12:37 pm

Scott- Never heard of coolernearthelake (but Darjean used to be gold with 2yos back in the day, didn't he?)

Cooler is running again tomorrow-Joel thinks he's better as a sprinter but in my opinion, if he continues to get out of the gate slowly then sprint success is highly unlikely. Mike thinks he'll break his maiden someday but to be honest we don't think he'll be winning the Breeder's Cup Classic any time soon!

See 'ya Saturday

eaoa89 06/11 5:45 pm

Scott-
Did you see we bought That I Am from Duchosiois and Winchester Bay from Wexler and they both won their first races at Hawthorne. On another subject, not sure how much pull you have but with the Saturday contests coming during "prime time" for the 3yo preps, is there any way that the contests could be open to all tracks rather than just Hawthorne? -
Thanks and hope to see you on March 7th.

Steve

eaoa89 25/01 8:16 am