Polytrack & Horses for Courses - Part II

horoscopes007:

Bill Finley (author of Betting Synthetic Surfaces) would agree. He says there is no good proof that turf horses will run equally well on artificial surfaces.

Good handicapping!

Scott

chermo:

I support your observation. In the past, in pre-Polytrack days, the inside posts at the one-turn distances did have negative post position stats. That reversed with the coming of Polytrack. Post position studies for last year's first Polytrack meet show that now the inside posts are advantaged, over time, which one would expect: after it, it is the shortest way home.

Or, were you referring to day-to-day lane biases?

By the way, are you the ostrich that kicked the assistant starter behind the gate last spring, sending him to the hospital with a broken arm?

Chris:

Yes, I have observed that the Polytrack runs faster when we have heavy rain. I should say, I know it does. I calculate a track variant for every race day that tells me just how fast or slow the track ran each day. I only need to look at that variant to confirm that the track speeds up after heavy rain, and I can quantify exactly how much.

In answer to your second question, I pay no attention to a horse's record on a wet track when I am handicapping him for a Polytrack race. A horse's wet-track record is compiled, collectively, from all his races on good, sloppy, muddy, heavy, and so-called wet-fast tracks (a misnomer and oxymoron if there ever was one). Furthermore, those track conditions are only found on traditional racing surfaces. Recommendation: stick to Polytrack history when handicapping for a Polytrack race.

Scott

Cubswincubswin:

Boy, you Cubs fans guys get cocky when the Cubs sweep the Sox, don't you?

No, I donated my abacus to the Smithsonian. Got a much-needed tax deduction for it, too, I might add.

However, I do have the Underwood calculator that replaced the trusty old abacus way back when. Do you remember those? You pressed down (until they stuck down) on numbered keys representing the number you wanted to enter, such as 31. Then you pulled down on the handle affixed to the right side of the calculator. Then you entered the next number, such as 53, and pulled down again. Then you could depress the TOTAL key, crank the handle one more time, and 84 would show in the panel across the top of the machine. Nifty, huh? A little WD-40 now and then and she still works like a charm.

THG4559:

These are excellent suggestions, and I endorse them.

In fact, you preempted me a bit since I was going to include some of your recommendations into my next installment. I will still do so, then add a simple extrapolation technique that can get us closer to making a prediction on how fast we can expect a horse to run today. It has been very helpful in handicapping this current meet.

Fans, stay tuned - check the web site regularly for the next installment.

Scott

Sometimes I think a good horse can take a liking to a different surface just because they are good performing horses. For example I liked the mare Piano Tunner. She did well on all three surfaces dirt, turf and poly. But I think this depends on how talented the horse is.

eaoa89:

Thank you for your post.

I hope, however, that you are not over-emphasizing breeding in your handicapping. Breeding only speaks to a horse's potential. My sire was an electrician, but you wouldn't want me to do any wiring jobs around your house.

We are far enough into this meet where most races have horses with two or three recent starts over this track. Concentrate your attention, and your bankroll, on those races where you can make a reasonable prediction of the likely outcome based on how each horse has been running recently, at this meet, on Polytrack. Or, if it's a turf race, only concentrate on each horse's turf efforts. Your results will improve.

Did you attend my seminar at Arlington last Saturday (June 28)? If so, you saw how I go about marking up the PP's and handicapping a race. If not, be sure to make the next one.

Early in the introduction of artificial racing surfaces, one of the theories going around was that horses who liked the turf would like synthetic surfaces. I don't buy it. Some horses will run the same on Poly as they do on grass, some will improve, some will deprove. It goes right back to the horses-for-courses phenomenon. Most horses have footing preferences. Until we run a horse a couple of times over a surface, we won't know his preference(s).

You are correct when you say that rain can make the track run faster. See my response to Chris, above. Often, that will also mean that speed will be more favored, but that is not a guarantee.