Daily Handicapping

There are three runners in here with the word “Deputy” in their names and all three look like top contenders. I’ve chosen longshot 10-CHOSEN DEPUTY. He finished far back in all of his starts but all were routes. He was right there for six furlongs in his last couple of races, since moving to this barn, but he tired badly late. With the turn back to a sprint, he might finally be able to finish with something left. 4-DEPUTY SREVA drops into maiden claimers for the first time. He’s had some good Polytrack races and some competitive efforts against better company. Makes his first start since January but he’s been training well for his return. Could be tough at this level. 1-EL SECRET WEAPON looks like the best of the speed. His third-place finish at Woodbine two races back was the key. He can handle synthetic surfaces, he’s meeting his easiest field ever, and he just might get away unchallenged on a track that has been kind to early speed. 7-DAVID’S TIGER finished a non-threatening fourth in his lone race but he was running by horses. Gets an extra sixteenth mile in this race, drops in for a tag, and gets the top rider in the irons. Has to be considered.

6-DR. WEISSGUY should be able to take advantage of what promises to be a quick pace. Raced well in both starts this year. Drops a notch for this. Can roll by late. 1-CLASS N CHARM looked sharp beating easier in his last start. Moves up a notch for this but he appears to be at the top of his game, he’s done very well on Polytrack, and he’s versatile enough to race on or off the lead. 2-ALWAYS ROSES scored in two of his last three races at Hawthorne and went off at long odds each time. Meets tougher here than he’s been facing but he’s been sharp on Polytrack, finishing in the money in five of his seven races on the surface, and he should never be too far off the pace. Might finish the fastest of all. What do you do with 5-WYOMING FRANK? He’s undoubtedly the quickest member of this speed-filled race. It’s been two years since he failed to grab the early lead. But, even when he coasts along by many, he tends to tire in the final eighth. They will have to catch him but that seems likely to happen.

7-BEA IMAGE didn’t beat a rival in his only start this year but he’s dropping sharply and meeting many that have been less successful and quite a few that are still trying to earn their second win. He’s racing for a barn that won with 12 of their first 17 starters at the meet. Could run by all of them late 6-HOLLYWOOD BERTIE didn’t handle the better company at Keeneland in last but he did win his previous start, at Turfway, at this level. He raced exclusively on Polytrack. He’s quick from the gate. Might never look back. 5-BLACK JACK BREEZE meets better here but he dominated in his last start at Hawthorne. He’s not as quick as Hollywood Bertie but he shouldn’t be racing too far off the pace. Good turf breeding suggests that he’ll be able to handle Polytrack. Looks like a top contender.

5-LIGHT SLEEPER ran well in all of her races, all on the turf. She only split the field in her first start against winners but she was in against tougher and she finished only two lengths back. Tries Polytrack for the first time but she’s bred to love it. Adds blinkers to increase her focus and probably her early speed. Should be tough at this level. 7-ON A HIGH CLOUD won only one of 28 races and showed little in previous Polytrack attempts but she did lure the services of the top jock. Her last few main-track races weren’t bad. Might be ready to pull it all together. 4-PARADE SUMMER GIRL took 13 starts to break her maiden, which she did in last, but she finally seems to be at the top of her game. Of course, those recent good races were on turf but she had a couple of decent starts on the local Polytrack last year. The switch in surfaces shouldn’t show her at all.

4-SOL A PINO finished seventh in his lone race but he got away a step slow, made a move to get into contention, retreated a bit, and came on again leaving the turn. Unfortunately he tired late in that nine-furlong race and finished seventh. But, he’s racing with a start under his belt, this race is a sixteenth shorter, and he’s probably meeting easier company. He’s another starting for one of the top barns in the country. Could provide a mild upset. 6-JAMALUDIN hasn’t been all that sharp so far but he’s been running against some pretty tough company. Finished fourth in a $75k maiden claimer in his last at Gulfstream but every runner that beat him in that spot came back to win their next race. World-class connections and the top local rider make a strong team. This one could graduate today. 5-MISTER MERZ had a troubled trip in a race that was too short for him in his lone start. Stretches out. Had two good drills since his race. Starts for sharp connections. Probable longshot shouldn’t be ignored. 11-HIGH APPROVAL finished fourth in his lone race this year, and fourth here on this course last year, but both finishes were better than they looked. He closed a ton in his debut race, a start that he obviously needed, and he had a ton of trouble in his last. A clean trip would easily make him a top contender in this one.

2-LUNE ROUGE got DQ’d from a win in last but she still did beat a pretty good open-company field. She’s been great in all but one of her starts, a $127k stakes race at Woodbine. Meets many in good form but she is at the top of her game, she’s moving back to state breds, and she’s returning to the surface where she broke her maiden by daylight. 8-THRUWAY won her only state-bred race, in her debut, and she’s been taking open company ever since. She’s been pretty competitive in most of her starts, though she didn’t appear to like turf at all, and, like top choice, she owns good tactical speed. Should get a boost from the move back into Illinois-bred company. 1-REASON TO WINK got claimed from her maiden victory in her last start. Speedy filly makes her first start for this barn and her first as a winner. Not sure how she’ll handle the Polytrack but speed has been holding and she does appear to be the quickest of these. Might not get caught.

What makes this race so interesting is that so many of the top contenders are Illinois breds. 9-UNPAID CRUSADE easily won his two state-bred races but he also raced very well against open company. Went on the shelf after an extremely dull effort on a yielding course at Churchill in November but he’s been training well for his return, both of his wins were scored when he was fresh, his barn excels with runners returning from long layoffs, and he gets the top rider in the irons. 4-BEST BUDDY has only a modest turf pedigree but he’s been absolutely sensational in his last couple of starts and his barn has been popping with some really nice turf runners. Not sure how he’ll fare with the move to the turf or the switch to open company but, off recent form, he definitely deserves the chance. 10-CAPE SAN BLAS starts from the outside but he does possess better speed than most of his rivals. Wouldn’t be surprised if he grabbed the early lead. With a strong prep at Keeneland under his belt, he could be prepared to stay in control throughout.7-TOM ARCHDEACON finished up the track in his final three starts of 2007 and he’s making his first start since November but this colt has run well off of layoffs and he scored a local stakes victory last year. Figures prominently.

2-MY BEST PAL RED will be tough to beat. He races for red-hot connections, he gets a Hall of Fame rider in the irons, he ran very well on this track last year, and he’s in good current form. 5-WORTHTHEBOTHER is certainly at the top of his game. He’s riding the crest of a three-race win streak, beating allowance company in his last two starts. Like top choice, he’s quick from the gate but he’s just as capable when stalking the early pace. Won one of his two Polytrack races here last year. Might not get beat. 3-MAMA’S LIL’ MON is another that figures prominently. Winner of last two steps up a notch but he’s certainly not outgunned. He’s been sharp on every surface but off tracks and finished in the money in eight of his 10 Polytrack races, including two wins. Everything running for this barn has been live. This one figures to be a top contender.

7-BALLADO’S THUNDER didn’t show much in her first race back from an extended layoff but she was taking on awfully tough company in the Grade 2 Rampart on dirt. Had a far easier time in last, when moved back to the turf, and scored a game victory in a tough classified allowance race. Moves back into the stakes ranks for this but the frequent visitor to graded stakes company is well within her realm. Has the speed and stamina to lead from start to finish. 4-CIAO is usually as tough as they get. This stakes winner narrowly missed in the Grade 2 Mrs Revere at Churchill in her last start. However, that race was in November and this filly hasn’t, for the most part, been that sharp when she was racing fresh. She’s been training well for her return to racing but there’s a possibility that she’s going to need the start. 6-MAMA I’M HOME hadn’t been in the best of form for quite a while but that changed when she moved to this barn for her last start. She woke up with a bang in a strong allowance event and drew off by daylight. Had two nice drills since. Won her lone local race. She’s taking on better here than she did in last but, if she comes up with the same kind of effort, it could yield the same results.

7-GRAND SENSATION never finished worse than second. He broke his maiden in his fourth start and came right back to finish second in a stakes race. He’s the quickest member of this field. The seven-furlong distance is well within his range. Should be in control from flag fall to finish. 4-HE’S THE COMMANDER could finish with a rush. He seemed to be running out of gas in his longer races but the turn back to this distance should suit him perfectly. If top choice does tire, this one could fly by late. 5-AMERICAN HUSTLER figures to be racing right at the heels of top choice. He tired late in his last two races but this will be the first time since his maiden win that he’s running with the benefit of a recent prep race. Might not quit.

4-ENGLISH SCHOLAR drops into maiden claimers for the first time. He hasn’t been effective against better so the drop makes sense. His best race so far came in his debut on this track. At this longer distance, with the return to his preferred surface, he should be in the right spot to graduate. 5-WATSON has been knocking at the door. He finished in the money in every start for this claiming tag. But, he tends to lose interest when he makes the lead. Maybe the turn back to a mile will make the difference. 1-CINCO MAYO drops once more. He’s been competitive lately but coming up short. The additional drop to this level might take care of that.