Racing & Wagering

Daily Handicapping

«Saturday, July 4, 2009»

Analysis

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

6-TRIGGER FISH LANE isn’t the only hot runner in this race but she did win her last three races, all locally, and she’s going to get a great pace ahead of her. Comes back at the right level. Should be able to extend her streak to three. 3-ETERNAL SUNSHINE has been showing some late run but coming up short in long sprints. Stretches out for the first time since March. Price shot should get plenty of pace to aim at. Might light up the tote board with a well-timed late run. 2-RAVIN MANIAC is likely to draw plenty of action after an eight-length romp in her last at this level. However, that win was scored at Mountaineer and form doesn’t always transfer from that track to this one. She does have speed and is probably the quickest of these but she’s been having trouble getting the distance at this track. Might be vulnerable.

Selection: 
6-3-2

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

6-ALL ABOUT ANNA only finished fourth in her two races but she was well played in her first and she went off as the favorite in last. Both of those starts took place at Churchill. She has an experience edge over most in here. There has to be a reason for all that previous action. She could graduate in this one. 7-I SEE MAMBO bled in her debut after breaking in the air but she still came running late to finish second. Gets Lasix today. Already showed that she can run. Might be the first to cross the wire. 1-CREDIT CRUNCH ran very well in both of her races, finishing second in both. She was narrowly beaten in each of them. There’s a good chance that she’ll go off as the favorite after those two good efforts. Might deserve every penny. 3-SHE’S ALL IN might be an Oklahoma bred but this well-bred filly comes from a family that does well with 2-year-olds. Her barn has been red hot all meet. Figures prominently with these.

Selection: 
6-7-1-3

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

6-MINIDROP could be in control from start to finish. This stretch-out runner is likely to be the only one in here with the speed to get to the lead. If Graham can get him to relax on the lead and slow the fractions to a crawl, he should have little trouble getting the distance. 4-HARIOLUS scored in two of his last three, including his local and Polytrack debut. However, it’s been nearly six weeks since his last race and his three drills since haven’t impressed. The pace of this race isn’t going to set up for him, and that could be a problem, but he might be able to do it all on his own. 5-SO BUSTED steps up off the win but he was racing against rivals better that these in the not-too-distant past and more than holding his own. Now that he’s back on top of his game, he could be the one to beat.

Selection: 
6-4-5

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

5-STAND N BE COUNTED tired badly in last but it was her first race since October. She did display good speed for about six furlongs. Turns back to five furlongs for this. Should be far fitter with a recent race behind her. Could finish with a ton of run. 1-CAT AT PLAY might be the best of these. Her works have been sufficient. Her barn does well with first timers. Her sire throws first time winners at an 18% rate. This one figures prominently. 6-DEAR FRIEND displayed good speed in both of her races but tired in each. Both of those races were on the main track and both were at six furlongs. With the slight turn back and the move to the grass, she might be able to lead this throughout. 13-HOLD ‘EM SLEW already had five turf sprints. She’s obviously still a maiden but she might have been meeting tougher all along. If she gets into the race it could be her graduation day.

Selection: 
5-1-6-13

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

4-AGNOSTIC surprised in a stakes race three starts back but lost his last two as the favorite. However, he stumbled badly in one of those wins and he ran into a very tough winner in his last. Seems to be meeting far easier in this race. Should get back on the winning track, 3-HE’S BONEFIDE scored in two of his last three. Those two wins came on the main track. His loss was on the turf. He’s good at the distance; he has a great late move. Could get by them all. 7-TIMELESS FACTS rides a three-race win streak. His first two victories came against claimers; the last against Illinois allowance. He can’t be ignored here despite the fact that he’s taking on better.

Selection: 
4-3-7

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

3-WAUPACA earned over $500,000 on turf. He finished up the track in his last start but that race was moved to the main track. He narrowly lost his prior start, when making his local debut. He owns good tactical speed but can still finish with a rush. This race will stay on the lawn. He should get headed back in the right direction. 10-PAISANO CREEK drops to an easier level. He won his first start of the meet, on soft turf, but hasn’t been quite as effective since. But, with the drop, he could make full use of his good closing move. Could rally late and blow by them all. 5-TOM ARCHDEACON adds blinkers and drops out of the stakes ranks. He hasn’t been in the best of form but he’s been in against tougher all along. At this level he should wake up. 6-LOAD A CHRONIC is usually in the hunt. He’s never been a high-percentage winner on this course but he did finish in the money in seven of his nine local starts. He’s another that will do his best running late. Could get close.

Selection: 
3-10-5-6

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

5-DECEPTIVE GLORY has been training very well for her career debut. Her barn does well with babies and first timers. Her sire sports a 13% win rate with his progeny making their debut. This one appears to be ready to roll. 6-THAT’S WHATHESAID finished third at this level and distance in her career debut. She was making up ground late when the race ended. Figures to be far fitter with a race under her belt. Might be able to graduate in this one. 2-SIXTYSIX MARGAUX showed only brief speed in her debut but this well-bred filly did go off as the favorite in that Churchill race. She worked easily since. Runners from her barn win about 27% of the time when making their second starts. There’s a good chance that she’ll make amends. 4-PASSION TAMER has been popping some hot drills. Her barn has been having a tough year but this well-bred filly could be the one that gets them headed in the right direction.

Selection: 
5-6-2-4

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

10-OMEGA CAT graduated in her turf debut and came right back to finish third in her first start against winners. She already showed that she could make up plenty of ground late, even when the pace was slow. With a recent race behind her, she figures to be at the top of her game. The stretch back to her winning distance could be the icing on the cake. 5-SINGLE SOLUTION meets winners for the first time. That race was on Polytrack. However, in her lone turf race, she finished second, only a head back, after a big late move. Figures prominently. 7-LAKE COOK showed little in a turf stakes last year but she ran well in all of her other turf races. She came from out of it in last but she did display better speed in her other starts. Could be a factor utilizing either running style in this one. 9-TWICE STRUCK GOLD only finished fifth in her local debut but she closed about six lengths in the stretch of that one-mile race. Gets an extra sixteenth mile to work with in this one. Might be able to surprise.

Selection: 
10-5-7-9

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Race Name: 
The Grade 3 Chicago Handicap
Analysis: 

There are no guaranteed winners in racing but 3-INFORMED DECISION comes awfully close. She won her last four, five of her last six, and seven of her nine career starts. Her last two wins came versus Grade 1 company. She won all four of her races at this distance. Carries anywhere from nine to 11 pounds more than her rivals but it’s not likely to matter. 4-AUTHENICAT has earned over $550,000 on synthetic surfaces, the majority coming in Woodbine restricted stakes. Not sure she can handle this type of company, she finished 17 lengths behind top choice the last time they met, but she might fit well with the rest. 6-CHORGUS showed little in her first start of the meet but she’s another that has been highly successful at this distance, though not in the same ballpark as top choice. She’ll show some late run. Could be the best of the rest. 1-CROWN OF DIAMONDS won her first start of the meet. She has speed but is just as capable of coming from off the pace.

Selection: 
3-4-6-1

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

None of these runners have shown a lot so far but most haven’t raced on turf. 8-RIMINI REBEL has the right pedigree to make his turf debut. Makes his first start since March and races for a barn whose runners often need a start or two but he’s dropping to the lowest level of his career and he has been training well toward this race. 7-PATH OF HONOR drops into maiden claimers for the first time. His first race was his best but none of them have been bad. Might not have an exceptional turf pedigree but it is sufficient. Would expect this runner to be one of the major players. 6-TWO NINETY FIVE didn’t show a thing when stretched out for his last start but he did finish second, after making a nice late move, in his previous race. Moves to the lawn for the first time. He’s bred to love the surface. Plus, he’s getting a sharp turf rider in the irons. Might be moving up in class but he does seem to have an outstanding chance at an outstanding price.

Selection: 
8-7-6

Value Plays

Early Pick Four (races 2-5)

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

2nd Race

6 All About Anna - Faced toughies in KY
1 Credit Crunch - Speedy, talented & game

3rd Race

5 So Busted - Shakes off class hike
4 Hariolus - Loved his last; short price
2 Deputy Sreva - Consistent late runner

4th Race

1 Cat At Play - Well spotted for debut
8 Green Glory - Fights for every yard
2 Aldebutante - Tries on sleeper shoes
11 Duvessa - Must respect the team

5th Race

1 Three Tickets - Pocket trip; square price
3 He's Bonafide - Fits well; back quick
6 Strong Stag - Rounding into form
4 Agnostic - Against the underlay

$1 Pick Four: 6-1 w 5-4-2 w 1-8-2-11 w 1-3-6-4 = $96

$1 Pick Four: 6-1 w 5-4 w 1-8-2 w 1-3-6 = $36

Selection: 
$1 Pick Four: 6-1 w 5-4 w 1-8-2 w 1-3-6 = $36

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

A seven-time winner on turf, Gold Sound was most recently seen finishing a distant third over a one-turn Poly mile. My DRF Formulator comments state: "rail trip, steady advance, fired, third best to tough top pair. Perfect springboard to turf route". He posted a useful work between starts, and should offer a square price in a crapshoot of a turf tilt.

Selection: 
#4 Gold Sound to win, 2x place & 3x show at odds of 6-1 or better.

Late Pick Four (races 7-10)

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 7
Race Name: 
Late Pick Four (races 7-10)
Analysis: 

7th Race

5 Deceptive Glory - Edge in tough call
8 Dreaminofjosephine - Runs them off their feet?
2 Sixtysix Margaux - Well bet in KY debut
6 Thats Whatshesaid - Sharp 3rd in first try

8th Race

10 Omega Cat - Must overcome tough post
5 Single Solution - Loved her last; repeat?
4 Lady of Greatness - Rates on consistency
3 Hug It Out - Appreciates stretch out?

9th Race

3 Informed Decision - Free space in Pick Four

10th Race

8 Rimini Rebel - Been longing for green
2 Manzana - Rates off improved 2nd
4 Storm Catch - Decent on Florida turf
11 Engulfanddevour - Upset minded team

$1 Pick Four: 5-8-2-6 w 10-5-4-3 w 3 w 8-2-4-11 = $64

$1 Pick Four: 5-8-2 w 10-5-4 w 3 w 8-2-4-11 = $36

Selection: 
$1 Pick Four: 5-8-2 w 10-5-4 w 3 w 8-2-4-11 = $36

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

A sharp maiden winner in her first every two-turn try on turf in April at Tampa, Omega Cat recently returned from a seven-week break to finish a fast closing third over the Arlington green. My DRF Formulator notes tell me this about her trip: "rail, came out, extended stride, getting to runner-up, galloped out strongly. Improves off needed race". The post makes the task tougher, but I like her chances anyway.

Selection: 
#10 Omega Cat to win, 2x place & 3x show at odds of 3-1 or better.

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
July 3, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

Rimini Rebel ran some creditable races this past spring over Oaklawn dirt. My DRF Formulator commentaries tell me this about his last two races: "rail, closer turn, finished willingly, speed favoring track & slow pace hurt. Progressing, but begging for turf route? UPDATE: Belated for show. TURF!!!" He gets turf today off a two-month layoff, but the works say he's on edge to fire fresh.

Selection: 
#8 Rimini Rebel to win, 2x place & 3x show at odds of 4-1 or better.