Racing & Wagering

Daily Handicapping

«Saturday, August 8, 2009»

Analysis

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

6-CABERNEIGH looks like the best closer in a speed-filled race. He finished third at this level in last, behind Wicked Spy, and the winner of that race, Recapturetheglory, is in the Arlington Million later on today. It was hard to pick between these two but Caberneigh might be better prepared to take advantage of the pace. 2-WICKED STYLE could challenge for the lead. He couldn’t hold off Recapturetheglory in last but he did finish the best of the rest. This could be his spot. 1-GENERAL CHARLEY is in the hunt in the majority of his races. He never seemed to fire in last, he still split the field, but he should bounce back with a big effort.

Selection: 
6-2-1

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

6-CROWNED ROYAL is in great form. He lost his last by a nose but won his previous two starts. Late runner should get sufficient pace ahead of him. Should be tough to beat. 5-SPANISH BARON ran well in his two U S starts; finishing fourth in his first and third, beaten only a length, in last. Raced over this track for the third time, the second time with Lasix. Could pull it all together today. 1-LAST WOMPUS drops out of the stakes ranks and turns back in distance. Never won at six furlongs but he has been competitive at the distance. This price shot meets his easiest field in quite a while. Could come alive in his first start off a layoff.

Selection: 
6-5-1

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Race Name: 
The Forward Pass
Analysis: 

3-RETAP is already a stakes winner. This well-traveled colt was trounced in his only start this year but he was in against a number of runners on the Derby trail and he simply wasn’t up to the challenge. It’s been six months since that race but he’s been training well and he races for one of the world’s top barns. He finished second in a Grade 3 in his lone Polytrack start. With his good tactical speed, he figures to be racing within striking distance right from the start. Think he’ll be ready to wrest control. 2-FUFTY TOO scored in his lone local start and has been a top contender in all but one of his other races. This multiple stakes-placed runner is one of the quicker members of this field but he’s probably even more effective when he comes from off the pace. Figures prominently either way. 5-CONCHACER was competitive for about 100 yards in his most recent start but he was in awfully tough in that $250k stakes race. Meets far easier here. He won two of his first three races and finished in the money in two subsequent starts. With the drop to meet easier stakes company, he should get headed in the right direction. 7-EDOPAPAS EKEPAPAS should be the quickest member of this field. Has a legitimate chance to lead it all the way.

Selection: 
3-2-5-7

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

10-OAK MOTTE bled in his debut but he still finished second to a winner that came right back to score in his next start. This one gets Lasix today. Had a series of good drills since his debut race. Could graduate in this one. 1-SKY TIGER is a well-bred debut runner with a strong set of drills, a razor-sharp rider, and a barn that scored with 22% of their first time starters and 19% of 2-year-olds. 5-LEROIDUGAZON ships in from Churchill. He finished third in both of his starts, showing speed each time. Might be able to pull things all together in his local debut. 12-THIS IS MY HOUSE starts from the tough outside post but this $62,000 purchase has been training well for a barn than excels with first timers and babies and they managed to get the services of Garrett Gomez, one of the top riders in the country. Wouldn’t ignore.

Selection: 
10-1-5-12

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Race Name: 
The Top Flight
Analysis: 

4-UPPERLINE scored a fairly easy victory in her debut. She got away a bit slowly but got to the lead by the top of the stretch and drew off to a daylight victory. Takes on stakes rivals in this one but all but two of her rivals are still seeking their second victories. The fact that she won at the distance bodes well for her chances. 1a-DECEPTIVE GLORY stalked then pounced to score a popular victory in her only race and runners from her barn often improve greatly in their second starts. This filly should find plenty of pace ahead of her. A move similar to the one she made in her debut could get her back on top today. 8-SISTER RESISTER is hard to gauge. She was an easy winner in her lone race and she won at a mile, suggesting that this distance is well within her realm, but that maiden win was scored at Ellis and she generated a fairly low speed figure. However, her barn is one of the best around and she gets a top-notch rider in the irons. Hard to ignore.

Selection: 
4-1a-8

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Race Name: 
The Hatoff
Analysis: 

Don’t know if we’ve seen the best of 1-ROMACACA. She did win her last four starts but two of them were against claimers. However, her last was against similar company and she won pretty easily. She’ll be meeting others with speed but she did draw the rail and could get the drop on them. Could take it all the way. 5-AFTERNOON STROLL was outgunned in the Grade 1 American Oaks in her last start but this speedy filly already notched a Grade 3 victory and she did run well in her lone trip on this course. She’s one of two that are likely to challenge top pick for the lead. Might be able to outclass her. 3-PRYTANIA never fired in the Grade 3 Regret in last but she was a top contender in every other one of her starts. She’ll be one of those racing far back, hoping the top pair, and some others, lock up in a speed duel. That would set things up for this filly’s late run.

Selection: 
1-5-3

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Race Name: 
The Grade 1 Secretariat
Analysis: 

Can 10-GIANT OAK bounce back? He finished a non-threatening fifth in the local Grade 2 American Derby in last after winning the Arlington Classic in his previous start. It’s not a question of distance; he finished his last with plenty left. He just never seemed interested. He’ll be taking on tougher here but he has been training better than ever. Heard they are going to allow him to race closer to the pace. It could make all the difference. 1a-DRIVING SNOW ran well in Ireland but he has improved dramatically since coming to the U S and racing with Lasix. He finished second in the Grade 3 Bourbon in his U S debut, only a head back, and came right back to score in a $200,000 stakes race in Indiana. He’s another taking on better here but he seems to have plenty of upside. 8-REB doesn’t win by much but he did win his last three starts, including the local American Derby, two lengths ahead of top choice. Those three victories were by two heads and a nose. He’s obviously one of the top contenders but those narrow margins are a little scary. Was he all out to win or only toying with his rivals? 7-TAKE THE POINTS never won on turf but his two starts, both graded events, were top notch efforts. He owns good tactical speed and the ability to finish with a flourish. Could run by them all.

Selection: 
10-1a-8-7

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Race Name: 
The Grade 1 Beverly D.
Analysis: 

2-PURE CLAN, the popular winner of the Grade 3 Modesty in her last start, was pegged as the morning-line favorite in the Grade 1 Beverly D and she could win right back. She scored in seven of her 13 races, five of eight on turf, and earned over $1,100,000. She’s capable of racing close to the pace or coming from far back but, either way, she finishes with authority. Could make it two in a row. 4-BLACK MAMBA is kind of a specialist at similar distances. Unlike most in here that have done it once, and Pure Clan who won two of her three at the distance, this mare has had eight races at it. She’s another than can finish with a rush. She won the Grade 2 Beverly Hills Handicap in last. Could repeat. 5-MAD ABOUT YOU gets first Lasix for this race. Conditioned by Ireland’s top trainer, this sharp filly is coming in on top of her game. Runners from her barn won the American Derby twice and took the Grade 1 Secretariat with Winchester last year but, so far, a victory in the Grade 1 Beverly D has eluded them. That could change today. 1-ALNADANA doesn’t race with Lasix and on a 90+ degree day that could be a problem but this talented filly comes off a very strong victory in the Group 3 Prix Messidor in France after finishing second in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes in her prior start. Christophe Soumillon, her regular pilot, comes in too ride. Could be tough at a square price.

Selection: 
2-4-5-1

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Race Name: 
The Grade 1 Arlington Million
Analysis: 

If you get the chance, watch 2-PRESIOUS PASSION’s race in the Grade 1 United Nations, on youtube.com. It’s amazing to see him scoot off to a 20-length lead. He obviously didn’t win by that much but he still held on to win by a couple. It should be noted that the United Nations was a furlong longer. Interesting. They might not know what hit them if this gelding decides to leave them in his dust again. His chances would be enhanced if the turf course stays firm. It’s hard to pick against 6-GIO PONTI after he just reeled off three straight Grade 1 victories. This late runner finishes like a freight train. There will be plenty of pace with speedball Presious Passion in the race. Would expect this guy to come flying late. It could be in time. 1-EINSTEIN is about as honest as they get. This talented runner has raced on dirt, turf, and Polytrack, and he has excelled on all of them. He finished a non-threatening fifth in last year’s Million but his connections hint that he’s a much better individual right now. Might post a mild surprise. 8-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE Was a Group 1 winner in Italy last year and scored in a Group 3 at Sandown late in May of 2009 followed by a fourth-place finish in the very tough Group 1 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown. He could be the sleeper in his Arlington debut.

Selection: 
2-6-1-8

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

9-IVORY EMPRESS tries Poly for the first time, in her first start after breaking her maiden, but this well-bred filly has been sharp in every one of her starts and she’s bred to handle any surface. Meets an extremely tough field but could be up to the challenge. 7-EXCELENTE had been only moderately successful since coming to the U S but she’s been in against stakes rivals in all of those races and all were on turf. Moves to the main track and drops into allowance company. She ran very well on an all-weather surface in Ireland. She might be able to pull it all together against these easier rivals. The switch in surfaces could work in her favor. 3-BREEZING RAIN was a highly-impressive debut winner. That race took place nearly two months back but she’s been training forwardly ever since. This modestly-bred runner just might be the real deal.

Selection: 
9-7-3

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 11
Race Name: 
The Spectacular Bid
Analysis: 

3-DIXIE BAND jumps in class to take on winners for the first time but the same holds true with most of his rivals. This sharp debut winner was able to win by daylight. The distance of this race should be well within his realm. Could be in full control throughout. 2-FANTASTICO ROBERTO easily won both of his starts. However, we really don’t know what kind of company he faced in the races in Italy. On the other hand, he moved to the Pletcher barn sometime after his last start, always a plus, and he’ll be getting Lasix for his U S debut. Figures prominently. 1-AUSPICIOUS RISK was another sharp debut winner. He was able to start to draw away from the field when they crossed the finish line. The extra quarter mile of this race would seem to work in his favor. Could do it again.

Selection: 
3-2-1

analysis

Handicapper: 
ronu
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 12
Analysis: 

8-CLASSIC ACTRESS might not get caught. She’ll face plenty of pressure but that has never bothered her before. With a win and two seconds in her last three races, you know she’s in great form. Should be right there every step. 11-ELEGANTE can’t be overlooked. She beat only one in her last start but she was taking on good stakes company. She had been in great form, on turf and Polytrack, prior to that race. Late runner races for a barn that has been having a tough meet so far but she could be the one that gets them back on the right track. 3-INBETWEEN RAINBOWS starts for the first time in two months and she never won on turf but she did narrowly miss in her last start, on the lawn, and she had been competitive in most of her recent starts. Has been training forwardly for her return to racing. Could pick up where she left off.

Selection: 
8-11-3

Value Plays

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 6
Race Name: 
Hatoof
Analysis: 

Purchased for $230K as a yearling, Fleet Streak is starting to come into her own. She ran her best race to date last out, finishing like a well-oiled machine to grab the place spot in the Indiana Distaff. She split horses gamely, and looked like a winner, but she was simply outfinished by the razor sharp Keertana that day. She posted a useful work between starts, and it would be no surprise to see her top her most recent effort.

Selection: 
#2 Fleet Streak to win, 2x place & 3x show at odds of 5-1 or better.

Mid Pick Four

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 6
Race Name: 
Mid Pick Four (races 6-9)
Analysis: 

6th Race

2 Fleet Streak - Has plenty of upside
3 Prytania - Excuse last; threat
1 Romacaca - Sharp from the rail
7 Single Solution - Up to the acid test?

7th Race

10 Giant Oak - Can make amends
8 Reb - Nose for the wire
9 Black Bear Island (IRE) - Royally bred Euro
7 Take the Points - Exits tough races
4 Laureate Conductor - Answers class question?

8th Race

1 Alnadana (IRE) - Absolutely love her
5 Mad About You (IRE) - Another talented Euro
3 Points of Grace - Flies under the radar

9th Race

6 Gio Ponti - American turf king
8 Cima de Triomphe (IRE) - Key names in races

$1 Pick Four: 2-3-1-7 with 10-8-9-7-4 with 1-5-3 with 6-8 = $120

$1 Pick Four: 2-3-1-7 with 10-8-9-7-4 with 1 with 6-8 = $40

Selection: 
$1 Pick Four: 2-3-1-7 with 10-8-9-7-4 with 1 with 6-8 = $40

$300,000 Guaranteed Festival Pick Three

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 7
Race Name: 
$300,000 Guaranteed Festival Pick Three
Analysis: 

7th Race

10 Giant Oak - Can make amends
8 Reb - Nose for the wire
9 Black Bear Island (IRE) - Royally bred Euro
7 Take the Points - Exits tough races
4 Laureate Conductor - Answers class question?

8th Race

1 Alnadana (IRE) - Absolutely love her
5 Mad About You (IRE) - Another talented Euro
3 Points of Grace - Flies under the radar

9th Race

6 Gio Ponti - American turf king
8 Cima de Triomphe (IRE) - Key names in races
1 Einstein (BRZ) - Turf warrior can do
4 Stotsfold (GB) - Euro gimmick wildcard
7 Gloria de Campeao (BRZ) - Broke thru in Singapore
2 Presious Passion - Catch him if you can

$1 Pick Three: 10-8-9-7-4 with 1-5-3 with 6-8-1 = $45

$1 Pick Three: 10-8-9-7-4 w 1 with 6-8-1-4-7-2 = $30

$1 Pick Three: 10-8-9-7-4 w 1 with 6 = $5

Selection: 
$1 Pick Three: 10-8-9-7-4 w 1 with 6-8-1-4-7-2 = $30

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 8
Race Name: 
Beverly D.
Analysis: 

A miler by trade, Alnadana will try to stretch her talents over 1 3/16ths miles today. She's as sharp as a tack right now, rolling over the boys in a French Group III laast out, equaling her career high Racing Post rating in the process. The win was visually impressive, and she had plenty left in the tank at the end. She has speed, but appears capable of rating, and if she does, an advantageous pocket trip awaits.

Selection: 
#1 Alnadana to win, 2x place & 3x show at odds of 7-2 or better.

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
joek
Race Date: 
August 7, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 9
Race Name: 
Arlington Million
Analysis: 

Gio Ponti has always been good, but he’s never been better than he is now. Wide every step in the Man ‘O War, he still won going away and with plenty left in the tank. I really think he has the chance to be one of the top North American turf horses of all time before all is said and done.

Selection: 
#6 Gio Ponti to win, 2x place & 3x show at odds of 2-1 or better.