Be Wary Of Sudan, Frankel

With Precious Kitten heading into the Beverly D as the morning line favorite it looks like Bobby Frankel has a big shot in the Grade One for the ladies, but I'm thinking he might have an even bigger shot with his Irish-bred front runner Sudan.

Glancing at his PP's, it is apparent that this is a classy horse who just hasn't had things go his way in most of his starts stateside. If you go a bit farther back, you can see he kept top company over in Europe, finishing behind horses like Rail Link, Soldier Hollow, Manduro, and Youmzain, not to mention taking down the Group One Gran Premio di Milano in his last European start.

His win earlier this year at Golden Gate Fields where he didn't beat anything definitely doesn't put him in the mix here, but the back-class suggests that if he can get things his own way out front he could be a formidable foe for the other seven runners on Saturday.

There has been quite a bit of talk concerning the French invader Spirit One and how his form suggests he belongs due to his victory over Balius in the Exbury (Group 3), who would later finish second to the fancied Archipenko in the QEII at Sha Tin. The Balius formline suggestion is rubbish in my opinion, as that one isn't anywhere near the top-caliber horses in England.

When looking at both Spirit One and Sudan's starts in Europe, there isn't much separating them aside from Sudan's Group One win. Sudan will likely be overlooked at the windows, while Spirit One could end up taking quite a bit of money.

Hopefully Johnny V. will get Sudan a comfortable trip on the front end, and the race will set up perfectly for him. There will be quite a few trying to catch him when they turn into the stretch, but I'm thinking he could put the slip on them and wire this bunch.

Late update... Sudan bowed a tendon and will be a non-runner. Looks like Spirit One might inherit the lead here.