Random Thoughts on the Million

Here are some various unconnected thoughts about today's Arlington Million (G1).

I'm utterly absorbed by the plot line swirling around ARCHIPENKO (Kingmambo), who was viewed as expendable by Ballydoyle, and Ballydoyle's Million hope MOUNT NELSON (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]). To be sure, other horses have been sold out of Aidan O'Brien's yard in the past and gone onto successful careers for new connections, but on the spot, I can't think of another high-level instance like this, where the “cull” (for lack of a better word) turns into an international Group 1 winner who is threatening to upend a current Ballydoyle charge in a race of the Million's caliber.

If I had a well-placed source in the Coolmore operation, I'd be dying to ask if they're surprised by the rapid rise of Archipenko? Surely, they would have kept him, had they envisioned him as a horse of world-class potential?

I happened to stop by the tent pitched outside the quarantine barn yesterday, where Archipenko's jockey Kevin Shea was holding court. In Shea's view, the Ballydoyle team never had the time to give Archipenko the attention he needed. He also confirmed something that I strongly suspected – in those last three races for O'Brien, Archipenko was merely employed as a pacemaker.

Shea described that it took about six months for Archipenko's new trainer, Mike de Kock, to get the pacemaking psychology out of the colt's mind, “to reverse the whole system around.”

It would be a fascinating plot twist if Archipenko, of all horses, can throw a monkey wrench into O'Brien's quest for an unbelieveable 18th Group/Grade 1 score of the season.

Archipenko's near-miss third in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) represents even stronger form than his later victories in Hong Kong and England. The Duty Free is arguably the deepest race run in the world so far this year. Here's a quick list of Duty Free runners who have gone on to win, or go close, in Group 1 contests: Jay Peg (Camden Park), Darjina (Zamindar), Vodka (Tanino Gimlet), Finsceal Beo (Mr. Greeley), Creachadoir (King's Best) and Linngari (Indian Ridge).

The form of Mount Nelson's most recent victory in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) was given a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers, Pipedreamer (Selkirk) and Campanologist (Kingmambo), came right back to run one-two in the York S. (Eng-G2). The Eclipse form also ties in neatly with that of Europe's top older horse, O'Brien's mighty Duke of Marmalade (Danehill), who had thrashed subsequent Eclipse runner-up Phoenix Tower (Chester House) and Pipedreamer in the Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot.

If O'Brien hadn't penciled “The Duke” in for the upcoming Juddmonte International S. (Eng-G1), Mount Nelson would probably have gone there as one of the top contenders, if not the outright favorite.

My condolences to owner Gary Tanaka, whose Sudan (Ire) (Peintre Celebre) came up with a bowed tendon on Million eve. Tanaka has been a terrific supporter of this race, and his familiar silks have been sported by the likes of 2002 runner-up Sarafan; Epalo (Ger), who was promoted to third upon the disqualification of Powerscourt (GB) in 2004; and the frequent trier Touch of Land (Fr).

Even though he already had Sudan earmarked for the Million, I was really hoping that trainer Bobby Frankel would have entered Out of Control (Brz) (Vettori), who had beaten then-reigning Million hero The Tin Man in last year's American H. (G2). Out of Control had also been a gallant runner-up to current Million threat EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) on Kentucky Derby Day, and just lost the Manhattan H. (G1) on the head-bob last out. If Frankel had to do it over again, would he still point Out of Control to the Pacific Classic (G1) on Del Mar's Polytrack instead of the Arlington Million?

Of the American-based horses, Einstein has been facing the best competition. He has defeated subsequent Grade 1 winners Dancing Forever (Rahy) and Artiste Royal (Ire) (Danehill). Moreover, he's finished second to reigning Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) victor Kip Deville (Kipling) in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), and second to Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Stephen Foster H. (G1) on the dirt.

STREAM CAT (Black Minnaloushe) dead-heated for fourth in the 2007 Million, beaten a grand total of one length. This year's edition has attracted a significantly deeper field, but he enters the Million off a career-best triumph in the Arlington H. (G3), his seasonal debut for new trainer Rusty Arnold. I think he moves up on rain-softened ground, and he probably would have preferred the rain to stick around a bit longer than it did. With a few days of perfect, sunny weather, the course has been gradually drying out. The key question for him is whether he can duplicate, let alone move forward, off that 3 3/4-length romp in the Arlington while making his second start off an eight-month layoff.

The grand old veterans CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) and SILVERFOOT (With Approval), both eight years old, will probably enjoy some sentimental support.

Cloudy's Knight is a wonderful demonstration of why patience is a virtue. When I asked trainer Frank Kirby why “Cloudy” got so good last year, at the ripe old age of seven, to become Canada's champion turf horse, he explained that they had given him a lot of time. A huge horse, who stands 17.2 hands tall and tips the scales at 1,265 pounds, Cloudy was raced sparingly earlier in his career. Kirby said that he allowed him ample time to grow, and he still gives him breaks between races that help to preserve him. After each race, Cloudy gets to go home to Kirby's own training center, where he has a bigger stall than what's available on the track, and much more suitable for a horse of his gigantic size. Kirby freely concedes that Cloudy prefers a much longer distance, upwards of 1 1/2 miles.

Silverfoot, who captured the 1 1/2-mile Stars and Stripes H. (G3) here, in which Cloudy was fourth, would also like the Million to be longer. A confirmed closer, the aptly named gray could be compromised by the withdrawal of Sudan, a development that suggests a moderate to slow tempo is in the offing.

I asked Leigh Bentley, who's overseeing Silverfoot for trainer Dallas Stewart, about the pace problem.

“It's always a factor, but I think he'll run well,” Bentley said. “Hopefully, we'll be up a little closer. He's doing super.”

On paper, it looks like French raider SPIRIT ONE (Fr) (Anabaa Blue) may serve as the controlling speed, but Einstein is also capable of carving out the pace in the right circumstances. Adding further intrigue, Shea said that he'd be happy to send Archipenko too if no one went ahead.

As I wrap this up – finally – the rain is once again falling in Chicago. Stay tuned for a bulletin on the course condition...