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Early Season Stat Analysis

Churchill Downs Communications | 06/09/2008 #

When playing the races, a certain percentage of people bet on the jockeys and trainers with the highest winning percentages. They figure they’ll cash more tickets, thus minimizing the risk.

While winning percentage is important, it’s a positive return on investment that’s going to put money in your pocket.

Thus far at Arlington, five jockeys have proven to be profitable, led by newcomer Junior Alvarado and Hall of Famer Earlie Fires.

Jockey Return on Investment statistics through June 8 (those showing a profitable return on investment in bold).

Jockey

Starts

Wins

$Bet

$Return

Margin

1. Rene Douglas

136

39

$272.00

$241.80

- $30.20

2. Jesse Campbell

137

23

$274.00

$289.80

+ $15.80

3. Eusebio Razo Jr.

106

19

$212.00

$131.10

- $80.90

4. Chris Emigh

128

17

$256.00

$153.00

- $103.00

4. Earlie Fires

39

17

$78.00

$141.10

+ $63.10

6. Eduardo Perez

95

15

$190.00

$211.50

+ $21.50

7. Ramsey Zimmerman

137

14

$274.00

$218.40

- $55.60

8. James Graham

116

12

$232.00

$127.20

- $104.80

8. Timothy Thornton

107

12

$214.00

$116.40

- $97.60

10. Jose Velez Jr.

72

11

$144.00

$121.00

- $23.00

11. Brandon Meier*

51

10

$102.00

$87.00

- $15.00

12. Inez Karlsson*

107

8

$214.00

$197.60

- $17.40

12. Junior Alvarado

35

8

$70.00

$156.80

+ $86.80

14. Jose Ferrer

93

7

$186.00

$81.90

- $105.10

15. Tanner Riggs

90

6

$180.00

$103.20

- $76.80

16. Carlos Silva

47

5

$94.00

$128.00

+ $34.00

* apprentice rider

More jockeying around……………

  • Jesse Campbell has ridden winners at a 21% clip on Polytrack, but he’s yet to score a turf victory from 25 tries.
  • On the flip side, Eusebio Razo Jr. and Jose Velez Jr. have both been much more successful on turf than Poly. Razo is 7 for 26 on turf (27%) and 12 for 80 on Poly (15%), while Velez is 5 for 17 on turf (29%) and 6 for 55 on Poly (11%).
  • Amongst the jockeys who have ridden at least eight favorites, Eddie Razo (63%), Earlie Fires (69%) and Eduardo Perez (56%) have been the most reliable, while Jesse Campbell (20%), Chris Emigh (28%), and Timothy Thornton (20%) have struggled a bit when piloting the public choice.

When you’re winning races at a 63% clip, chances are you’re going to flash a positive ROI, and leading trainer Wayne Catalano is doing just that through the first five weeks of the Arlington meet, but far and away the trainer showing the best profit margin is Moises Yanez.

Trainer Return on Investment statistics through June 8 (those showing a profitable return on investment in bold).

Trainer

Starts

Wins

$Bet

$Return

Margin

1. Wayne Catalano

38

24

$76.00

$115.20

+ $29.20

2. Chris Block

39

11

$78.00

$61.60

- $16.40

3. Moises Yanez

66

9

$132.00

$241.20

$109.20

3. Larry Rivelli

23

9

$46.00

$69.30

+ $23.30

3. Frank Kirby

75

9

$150.00

$142.20

- $7.80

3. Brian Williamson

52

9

$104.00

$66.60

- $37.40

7. Todd Pletcher

30

8

$60.00

$58.40

- $1.60

7. Dale Bennett

17

8

$34.00

$76.80

+ $42.80

9. Steve Hobby

35

7

$70.00

$45.50

- $24.50

10. Hugh Robertson.

34

6

$68.00

$55.80

- $12.20

10. Tom Amoss

18

6

$36.00

$37.80

+ $1.80

12. Tom Tomillo

79

5

$158.00

$52.50

- $105.50

12. Tom Proctor

18

5

$36.00

$23.00

- $13.00

12. Terry Gestes

25

5

$50.00

$64.00

+ $14.00

12. Don Von Hemel

17

5

$34.00

$30.00

- $4.00

12. Tom Swearingen

30

5

$60.00

$39.50

- $21.50

Trainer tidbits………

  • Somewhat amazingly, Steve Asmussen, far and away the nation’s leading trainer by wins in 2008 with 292 (through June 8), has yet to score a victory from 27 starts this meet. The leading trainer of juveniles here in ’07 with 7 wins from 42 starts, he’s 0 for 9 in that category this young Arlington season.
  • Dale Bennett has won with four of his five turf starters (80%).
  • Moises Yanez and Brian Williamson have been much more successful on Poly than turf. Yanez is winning at a 16% clip on Poly, but he’s just one for 17 with his turf runners, and Williamson is 22% on Poly and just one for 16 on the green.
  • Larry Rivelli, who was winless from six tries with 2-year-olds last meet, has won with both of his babies this season.